| |
| |
|
Investing Information |
|
|
|
The Economy Is Not The Stock Market
Several days ago, the Commerce Department reported that May's factory orders had increased by a 2.9 percent. This was well covered by 'the press', as it was to be a positive influence on 'the market' (yes, the quotes are intentional.....you'll see why). The enthusiasm was understandable - the $394 billion in orders of manufactured goods is the highest level seen since the current calculation method was adopted. Although being skeptical can be wise, the figure was (and is) a clue that the economy is on a solid footing. However, too many times there's a disconnect between what 'should' be the result of a piece of economic data, and what actually occurs. The economy isn't the market. Investors can't buy shares in factory orders......they can only buy (or sell) stocks. Regardless of how strong or weak the economy is, one only makes money by buying low and selling high. So with that, we put together a study of some of the economic indicators that are treated as if they affect stocks, but really may not. Gross Domestic Product The chart below plots a monthly S&P 500 against a quarterly Gross Domestic Product growth figure. Keep in mind that we're comparing apples to oranges, at least to a small degree. The S&P index should generally go higher, while the GDP percentage growth rate should stay somewhere in between 0 and 5 percent. In other words, the two won't move in tandem. What we're trying to illustrate is the connection between good and bad economic data, and the stock market. Take a look at the chart first, then read our thoughts immediately below that. By the way, the raw GDP figures are represented by the thin blue line. It's a little erratic, so to smooth it out, we've applied a 4 period (one year) moving average of the quarterly GDP figure - that's the red line. S&P 500 (monthly) versus Gross Domestic Product change (quarterly) http://www.bluegrassportfolio.com/images/070705spvsgdp.gif Generally speaking, the GDP figure was a pretty lousy tool, if you were using it to forecast stock market growth. In area 1, we see a major economic contraction in the early 90's. We saw the S&P 500 pull back by about 50 points during that period, although the dip actually occurred before the GDP news was released. Interestingly, that 'horrible' GDP figure led to a full market recovery, and then another 50 point rally before the uptrend was even tested. In area 2, a GDP that topped 6 percent in late 1999/early 2000 was going to usher in the new era of stock gains, right? Wrong! Stocks got crushed a few days later....and kept getting crushed for more than a year. In area 3, the fallout from the bear market meant a negative growth rate by the end of 2001. That could persist for years, right? Wrong again. The market hit a bottom just after that, and we're well off the lows that occurred in the shadow of that economic contraction. The point is, just because the media says something doesn't make it true. It might matter for a few minutes, which is great for short-term trades. But it would be inaccurate to say that it even matters in terms of days, and it certainly can't matter for long-term charts. If anything, the GDP figure could be used as a contrarian indicator.....at least when it hits its extremes. This is why more and more folks are abandoning traditional logic when it comes to their portfolios. Paying attention solely to charts is not without its flaws, but technical analysis would have gotten you out of the market in early 2000, and back into the market in 2003. The ultimate economic indicator (GDP) would have been well behind the market trend in most cases. Unemployment Let's look at another well covered economic indicator......unemployment. This data is released monthly, instead of quarterly. But like the GDP data, it's a percentage that will fluctuate (between 3 and 8). Again, we're not going to look for the market to mirror the unemployment figure. We just want to see if there's a correlation between employment and the stock market. Like above, the S&P 500 appears above, while the unemployment rate is in blue. Take a look, then read below for our thoughts here. S&P 500 (monthly) versus Unemployment rate (monthly) http://www.bluegrassportfolio.com/images/070705spvsunemp.gif See anything familiar? Employment was at it strongest in area 2, right before stocks nose-dived. Employment was at its recent worst in area 3, right as the market ended the bear market. I highlighted a high and low unemployment range in area 1, only because neither seemed to affect the market during that period. Like the GDP figure, unemployment data is almost better suited to be a contrarian indicator. There is one thing worth mentioning, though, that is evident with this chart. While the unemployment rates at the 'extreme' ends of spectrum was often a sign of a reversals, there is a nice correlation between the direction of the unemployment line and the direction of the market. The two typically move in opposite directions, regardless of what the current unemployment level is. In that sense, logic has at least a small role. Bottom Line Maybe you're wondering why all the chatter about economic data in the first place. The answer is, simply to highlight the reality that the economy isn't the market. Too many investors assume there's a certain cause-and-effect relationship between one and the other. There's a relationship, but it's usually not the one that seems most reasonable. Hopefully the graphs above have helped make that point. That's why we focus so much on charts, and are increasingly hesitant to incorporate economic data in the traditional way. Just something to think about the next time you're tempted to respond to economic news. James Brumley is the chief analyst at Bluegrass Portfolio Management. After spending time as a broker, he established an independent investment research firm. He now manages portfolios, and you'll find his market commentary and analysis on several financial websites. See all of his analysis at http://bluegrassportfolio.com/
MORE RESOURCES:
Google News |
 |
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
The Differences Betweeen the Wealthy and Everyone Else I recently received an e-mail from a young lady who had doubts about the principles of wealth found in "Rich Dad, Poor Dad". She mentioned a couple of past failed investments, and wanted to know what I thought about investing and financial freedom - whether it was just a myth, or whether it could be acquired. Holy Grail Investments Every year I go to the Money Show inOrlando, Florida. Thousands attend. How to Invest Your Money Think carefully on how to invest your money because if you make wrong decisions it could cost you dearly. There are many ways in which to invest your money and as such seeking the advice of a professional would be a very wise move. It Is Never Too Early To Start A Roth IRA! The Roth is kind of weird until you get used to it in terms of how much you can put in (contribute) each year depending on how much you earn (compensation). Because of this you really have two limits, one dealing with your compensation and the other dealing with your contribution. Beta Factors: How They Can Be Used In The Current Situation Ever since the turn of the century, world stock markets have been very volatile. In other words there have been significant movements (up or down) in share prices. Chinas Great Missed Opportunity While a U.S. Scots Beat Yanks in China Bank Deal With visions of an ATM in every neighborhood in China, foreign banks and investment firms are queuing up to join the "China Club."Moneybags CommunismThe initiation fee for the "China Club" is straightforward and pure moneybags communism: invest cold hard cash in its largely insolvent state-owned banks, put your reputation on the line, reassure nervous foreign investors about upcoming IPO's, and share your risk management, corporate banking and other expertise with eager Chinese executives. Volatile Range The stock market fell sharply Thu and Fri before and after the employment reports Fri morning. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 207,000 net jobs were added in July, which were 27,000 more than the market expected. Preholiday Trading The Light Crude Continuous Contract closed at $66.13 a barrel Friday, after hitting an all-time high at $67. Investing Pointers for Neophyte Investors If you know next to nothing, how do you go about the business of investing? The first thing you need to know about investing is, how much do you really know? If its' not much, then you will need to read extensively to educate yourself.To become well-informed, you should read up on the basics. Investing In or Owning Drug Lab Properties Clean Up (includes the insides and the outside of a building)Air out the buildingRemoval of contaminated materials: Carpets, carpet pads, Linoleum, drapes and blinds, air-filters, refrigerators, range, water heater, all tenant clothing and their furniture.Removal needs to be to a site that accepts contaminated product. Understanding The Real Rate of Return! There is one indicator more than any other which determines the health of an economy and it is the Real Rate of Return.Furthermore this is the simplest of all indicators to understand because it determines the safety of assets. Are You An Investment Dummy Like Me? I am good at a few things. I can certainly market well and I consult with others about how to bring more attention to their products and services on the internet for a living. Beginning Investor - Investment Terms Over the course of the past two months, readers have brought to my attention that there is a steep learning curve for investment terminology. That's why the focus of this month's Beginning Investor column will be investment terminology. Easily Finding A Good Stock There is a tremendous amount of software,complicated high priced newsletters, radio andTV stock pickers and Internet web sites thatwill help you find a stock that is going to makeyou rich.The problem is you don't know if this is talkor are these gurus putting their own money wheretheir mouth is. How to Choose the Right Share Class You'll want to opt for the no-load or institutional share class instead. If you're a no-load investor who is determined to buy a fund that's primarily broker-sold, go through a supermarket and opt for the D shares. Finding the Perfect Company The perfect company - it's the holy grail of the investment world. The company that will make its initial investment hundreds of times over. Franchise Opportunity Sellers Beware; franchise buyers lie on forms? It seems completely absurd that franchise buyers lie about their financial position, available cash and abilities in order to buy a franchise. After spending 8 years setting up franchises around the nation and fielding inquiries I am appalled at the lack of integrity of the average business buyer. Rules for Simplified Employee Pension Plans better known as a SEP Plans A SEP is a special type of IRA. Under a SEP plan the employer creates an IRA account for each eligible employee, hence the name SEP-IRA. Diversify! The best way to avoid being hit hard by a stock market crash or another Enron/Worldcom fiasco is to make sure you don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification helps ensure steady growth of your net worth as you accumulate more assets.
|
| home-bondsnstocks.com | site map |
| © 2007 |
